NEWS BLOG (WSAU) Something happened in our local congressional race last week, only I have no idea exactly what it is.

Realclearpolitics.com, the definitive web site for political polling, had shown the 7th District of Wisconsin as a toss up. Last Thursday it was re-classified as “leans Republican”. The million dollar question is why.

There’s been no independent polling in this race, yet there certainly has been internal polling from the candidates. GOP candidate Dan Mielke has whispered for weeks that his primary opponent Sean Duffy has done polling that he won’t talk about in public… because the results aren’t good. There’s no way of telling if this is true. Democrat Julie Lassa doesn’t appear to be organized enough to do polling within her campaign. And as the newest entrant in the race her name recognition across the district is still low.

But surely the national parties have done polling in the WI-7. The national parties have 435 races around the country and they have to decide which seats are truly “in play”. They’ll pour national advertising dollars into those races where they have a chance of winning. Polling informs those decisions.

Something caused this race to be moved out of the toss up category. Knowing why would be fascinating.

Chris Conley
Operations Manager, Midwest Communications-Wausau
8.24.10

P.S. Real Clear Politics predicts the GOP will take control of the house. Their current seat-count is 203-to-199. They classify 33 races as toss-ups. 32 of those races are seats that are currently held by democrats.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com