I believe Hayes has this exactly right. I have believed for some time that Rubio is out of the running because he's told Romney he won't take it. If I'm wrong about that I believe the short list should be Rubio or Ryan. If I'm right about Rubio being out by his own choosing, then it should be Ryan.

Rob Portman isn't the kiss of death; Romney can win with him. And he does fit the "do no harm" rule of selecting a running mate. Yes, Ryan is a lightning rod. But the conservative base is still nervous about Mitt and Ryan or Rubio can help there. Yes, Portman is a good solid conservative, but charisma, like it or not, is a factor here too. And I agree with the polls that say this pick is an important factor to voters.

Listen to Governor Walker's advice Governor Romney; go big and go bold.