Remember Nate Silver? He is the stats man turned superstar after he accurately predicted the 2012 presidential race in all 50 states and got most of the Senate races right. Silver today released his first take on the 2014 mid-terms and gives the edge to the GOP to re-take the Senate. You can read the entire analysis for yourself but boiled down it reads like this: Republicans have a 60% chance of taking six seats, enough to take control of the Senate and have a 30% chance of a very big night, which would mean picking up 11 seats.
As the piece points out, it's loaded with caveats, and things could change. But it would appear this is the Republicans' election to lose. And perhaps the biggest plus Silver points out here is that there seems to be less of an inclination by Republican voters to choose candidates in primaries that don't have a reasonable chance of winning in November.
And it's a long way to November. Things can change. But it seems unlikely Democrats can do much to move the needle as long as Obamacare is the donkey in the room. But Republicans are always capable of doing it for them.
Photo credit: By randy stewart from Seattle, WA, USA (Nate Silver - SXSWi 2009) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons