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Yes, It's Still Really That Close

by Jerry Bader

The latest Marquette University Law School poll is as predicted by most, including me: the race for governor is razor close. If fact, it's virtually unchanged from the last two polls; Mary Burke has a negligible lead among likely voters and Scott Walker has a nearly as negligible lead among likely voters.

The needle isn't going to move in one direction or the other. This race will be all about energized bases and right now it's tough to say if either candidate is leading there. If one is, it doesn't feel as though it's Walker. And Walker seems to know that. He's preaching hard against complacency.

Democrat Susan Happ's margin over Republican Brad Schimmel in the Attorney General's race might be a bit of a surprise. Happ has a ten point lead with likely voters. You can expect that race to accelerate.

And as I said on the air today, dismiss this poll at your peril. It has become the gold standard of measuring Wisconsin public opinion and you should take it very seriously.