By Chris Vellacott
LONDON (Reuters) - Troubled insurer RSA
RSA said on Friday that it needed to boost capital and may have to cut its dividend following three profit warnings and a move to strengthen reserves at its Irish business, where it suspects accounting irregularities.
Some analysts estimate Britain's biggest non-life insurer, which owns the More Than brand, may need to raise as much as 1 billion pounds.
RSA Chairman Martin Scicluna is under pressure to outline a recovery plan to avoid downgrades to the company's credit ratings, a move that could deter insurance brokers from recommending its products such as car and home insurance.
Ratings agency Fitch on Monday put RSA's Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) rating of 'A' on Rating Watch Negative, indicating it is considering a downgrade.
Selling trophy assets in overseas markets, where RSA makes two thirds of its revenue, could be its least worst option.
Investors who have seen their shares fall 28 percent since the start of this year are unlikely to back a rights issue and analysts say the company is worth less than the sum of its constituent businesses, making the prospect of a full takeover remote.
"The key thing is that if there is a capital shortfall, shareholders will be unwilling to plug it with a rights issue," said one institutional RSA shareholder on Monday.
Some commentators have suggested RSA could be a takeover target, particularly following the close to 12 percent fall in its share price since Thursday, the day before its latest profit warning.
However, many analysts said management and shareholders would seek to avoid a full sale which would likely raise less than selling the insurer piecemeal.
Broker Canaccord Genuity estimated RSA would have an equity value on disposal of up to 130 pence per share, assuming the individual businesses are valued at between eight times forward earnings for the British arm, and 15 times for the Canadian unit.
That compares with Canaccord's target price for the whole group of 85 pence, implying it is worth more broken up than as a whole. RSA shares were trading at around 90 pence on Monday.
No bidder has yet come forward, an RSA source said on Monday.
But if RSA was forced to divest trophy assets such as businesses in Scandinavia, Canada or emerging markets in Asia or Latin America, this would amount to 'selling the family silver," according to Shore Capital Stockbrokers.
RSA would be left with a rump of slow-growth western European assets such as its Irish business, where consultant PwC
Scicluna, who has been running the insurer since chief executive Simon Lee quit on Friday, told Reuters any parts of the business could be sold but declined to say which were the most likely.
The RSA source said the firm is being advised by its corporate brokers JP Morgan and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Scicluna and his team are scheduled for a routine meeting this week with ratings agency analysts this week, the source said.
RSA has an implied rating of 'BBB', according to Thomson Reuters data, compared with an average of 'BB+' for its peer group of UK insurers that includes 'A' rated Aviva
($1 = 0.6143 British pounds)
(Reporting by Chris Vellacott; Editing by Erica Billingham)