The most decorated franchise in National Football League history is ready to take another run at it.
The Green Bay Packers have 13 NFL championships, more than any other team in the league, they are making their 34th appearance in the playoffs, moving ahead of the Dallas Cowboys on the all-time chart. They own the number one seed in the NFC field with a 13-3 record and come off the bye to welcome the 11-6 Los Angeles Rams to Lambeau Field for the 3:35 PM CST kickoff on Saturday. The Rams advanced to the Divisional Round with a 30-20 Super Wild Card Weekend victory against their division rival Seahawks in Seattle last weekend.
The Packers all-time playoff record is 35-23, they’ve gone 19-5 in the post-season at home, but are just 6-5 in their last 11 playoff games at Lambeau Field. The disappointments have been memorable, from Mike Sherman’s 2002 Packers losing the first ever playoff game at home, 27-7 to Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons, to the New York Giants overtime shocker in Brett Favre’s last game for the NFC Championship and most recently, the Colin Kaepernick led San Francisco 49ers who eliminated Green Bay for a second straight year in 2013.
This will be the third post-season matchup ever against the Rams. The Packers won the first get together in the 1967 Western Conference Final played at Milwaukee County Stadium, 28-7, which set up the legendary Ice Bowl. In the 2001 Divisional Round, Green Bay was overwhelmed by the Rams who had moved to St. Louis, 45-17 on a day where they turned the ball over 8 times, half of Favre’s 6 interceptions were returned for touchdowns.
So here we are, on the eve of a game loaded with terrific matchups. The number one scoring offense against the league’s top scoring and overall defense. First team All Pro’s Aaron Rodgers against Aaron Donald, Davante Adams versus Jalen Ramsey. Head Coaches who are best friends in Matt LaFleur and Sean McVay. How will it play out?
When the Packers have the ball.
The defensive numbers are imposing, 281.9 yards allowed per game, just 190.7 in the air, 91 on the ground and opponents managed just 18.5 points on average against it each week. Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley creates confusion by moving his front seven playmakers around with his secondary usually holding firm with two deep safeties. The Packer challenge will be to neutralize the disruption of Donald and his cohorts like Michael Brockers and Leonard Floyd by staying ahead of the chains and in rhythm. That could well fall on the legs of Aaron Jones. He talked about how the Rams penetrate hard at the line of scrimmage and close down the run on their way to the quarterback but if they charge too fast and too deep, Jones should be able to zip by and reach the second level of the defense. While Ramsey may not shadow Adams everywhere on the field, there will be plenty of one on one matchups. Davante’s route running creativity will help and the Packers will relocate Adams via motion or shifting into the slot to find more favorable coverage options. If Jones finds success on the ground, the play action game for Rodgers will help slow the rush and let timing routes develop. The secondary targets must all make plays when the opportunities come, be it Alan Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or tight end Robert Tonyan. Getting to the red zone won’t be easy but when the Packers have gone inside the 20, adoringly called the “Gold Zone” by the Pack, they cashed in with touchdowns 80 percent of the time. Rodgers said situational football, red zone, third downs, so good all year long, must be on point one more time.
When the Rams have the ball.
Here’s where I think the Packers have a more decided advantage. Jared Goff will make his first start since cracking his right thumb on the top of a helmet in week 16. He had surgery to hold the thumb together with pins and come on for the injured John Wolford last week, completing 9 of 19 passes with a touchdown, and easy floater to Robert Woods in the Wild Card win. But can he really drive the ball downfield on a 35 degree day with any accuracy? I’m inclined to think not. With receiver Cooper Kupp dealing with a sore knee and questionable for the game, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds will have to win against a Green Bay secondary that’s all but eliminated explosive plays downfield. It’s incumbent on the Packers front seven to neutralize LA’s top back, rookie Cam Akers who came on down the stretch of the regular season and then ruptured Seattle’s defense for 131 yards last week. The Rams run nearly an identical wide zone scheme as the Packers do, looking to get the linemen to move laterally and cutting hard into creases that are created. Akers is capable of doing that. The Rams offensive line might be without starting guard Dave Edwards with an ankle injury, questionable to play according to the final injury report and 39 year old left tackle Andrew Whitworth just returned in the playoffs after missing the final six weeks of the regular season. Forcing Goff to squeeze the trigger with pain in his right thumb could lead to takeaway chances that must be capitalized on. For all the talk about the Rams defense leading up to the game, it just might be the Packer defense that steals the show.
The bottom line.
The Packers know all about how a number 6 seed can turn a road playoff victory into true belief. They did it themselves on their way the Super Bowl XLV title. The Rams are coming to Wisconsin with that belief and a resume that can back it up. I just think the Pack’s level of precision over the past four months on offense, save for one bad day in Tampa, will not leave them when it matters most and they’ll take one more step toward returning to Florida with a hard fought victory against a worthy opponent.
I like the Pack, 27-20.
