By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan on Thursday appeared to add a new pillar to the case he is building for reducing the U.S. central bank’s support for the economy, saying that the labor market is already tighter than many appreciate.
The factors crimping labor market supply “may not be particularly susceptible to monetary policy,” he and several of his economists wrote in a blog on the Dallas Fed’s website.
Though those factors may fade as the year progresses, labor supply may ultimately increase less than expected. “It is our view that this possibility should be kept in mind as policymakers assess the appropriate stance of monetary policy,” they wrote.
Kaplan has been pushing for the Fed to start discussing a reduction in its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities sooner than later, citing risks of excesses and imbalances in the financial markets and the possibility that inflation could surge out of control if super-easy policy continues too long.
A tighter-than-appreciated labor market would be another argument for easing up on the monetary policy gas pedal, although in the essay Thursday Kaplan did not make that connection explicitly.
Instead, the blog noted “resilient” wage growth and “relatively abundant” jobs, indicating the labor market has less slack than suggested by the fact that the U.S. economy now employs 8.5 million fewer people than before the pandemic.
Only about 4.1 million of those will likely return to employment, they wrote. Many of the others have retired. Others are caring for family members, or are worried about their health, they said; the extra $300 weekly in unemployment benefits, part of the federal government’s pandemic aid package, may also be playing a role.
The Fed has said it will keep buying bonds at the current pace until it sees “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and 2% inflation. In recent days several other Fed policymakers have signaled they are ready to open a more extensive discussion about what that means.
(Reporting by Ann SaphirEditing by Chizu Nomiyama)
