It’s the wild card fifth interconference game for the Green Bay Packers. They’ll play all four teams from the AFC East this season and the outlier arrives Thursday night when the Tennessee Titans return to Lambeau Field for the second time in the past three years.
Just after Christmas in 2020, a decent snow storm also arrived as the Packers rolled over the Nashville visitors 40-14. The star running back that day wasn’t two time rushing champion Derrick Henry, it was then rookie A.J. Dillon who piled up 124 yards and scored two touchdowns. It was a satisfying victory for Head Coach Matt LaFleur who beat his former boss in Mike Vrabel. LaFleur was Vrabel’s offensive coordinator with the Titans for one year before the Packers came calling with a job. These two teams were on a projected Super Bowl collision course a year ago as they finished with the number one seeds in the AFC and NFC. Both were one and done. The Titans were upset by the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round while the Packers were eliminated by San Francisco at Lambeau. This year, the Packers started fast, going 3-1 before the bottom fell out. The Titans lost their first two, getting routed by Buffalo in week two. They got turned around thanks to a stingy defense and come to Green Bay having won six of their last seven games while the Packers finally ended a five game slide with the overtime win against the Cowboys only days ago. To make it back to back victories, the Packers (4-6) will welcome more snow to try and slow down the AFC South leading Titans (6-3).
When the Packers have the ball.
It couldn’t have been as simple as having Christian Watson run go routes or deep crossers for the offense to put up over 400 yards and score a season high 31 points against Dallas. It wasn’t. Two other factors which loom large for the final two months were having the preferred “best five” offensive lineman start and finish a game for the first time and a determined commitment to the running game even when they fell behind the Cowboys. The 62% run rate was a record setter for an Aaron Rodgers led offense and Aaron Jones put up 138 of the team’s 207 rushing yards. The production came even against a stacked box and the Dallas single safety coverage plan was carved up with only 14 completed passes. Problem is, the Titans don’t need an extra body to control a running game. They yield under 4 yards a carry, among the best in the league. That leads to a lot of third downs and Tennessee’s third down defense allows conversions only 27.8% of the time, the runaway best rate in the NFL. That can’t deter the Packers however because getting Aaron Rodgers back under center for run calls helps set up the play action game and maybe a couple more secondary stretching routes for Watson. Helping the cause for the Pack is the health of the Titan defense. A pair of starters have been ruled out for the game, outside linebacker Bud Dupree and strong safety Amani Hooker. Backup safety Lonnie Johnson Jr. is also out and their best defensive tackle, Jeffrey Simmons, is questionable as is nickel back Elijah Molden. The Packers have been able to move the ball on nearly every opponent and the confidence boost from executing and getting points last week will serve them well against a physical, but thinned defensive unit.
When the Titans have the ball.
Derrick Henry left. Derrick Henry right. Up the middle. Swing passes. Wheel routes. There may not be another player in the league who is such a focal point. With good reason. Henry has piled up 923 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground this year, just 8 yards behind league leader Saquon Barkley. He has 202 carries (4.6 average). Next on the team in rushing attempts is quarterback Ryan Tannehill with 30. The other two running backs, Dontrell Hilliard and Tory Carter have a combined 28 rushing attempts. Even though teams know what’s coming, getting it stopped is another matter. It requires first hitters to hang on and as many of the other 10 defenders to help get Henry to the ground. The rest of the offense has been very underwhelming. Tennessee ranks 32nd, dead last at 281 yards per game. Tannehill, who missed a game and a half, has thrown only 8 touchdowns with 3 picks and Robert Woods is the leading receiver with just 24 catches. While the Packers won’t sleep on the veteran or solid tight end Austin Hooper, the league’s third best pass defense should be up to the challenge. Look for Kenny Clark to be extra disruptive as starting center Ben Jones won’t be in the lineup. In that 2020 meeting, the Packers did an excellent job neutralizing Henry and the Titans couldn’t match the Pack’s offensive production.
Special teams notes.
With Amari Rodgers waived, Keisean Nixon may get first dibs as the team’s punt returner but don’t be shocked if newly signed Dede Westbrook comes up the practice squad after just one day to give it a go. Titans kicker Randy Bullock has been ruled out and a new leg will have a difficult time getting used to the Lambeau winds, not to mention the chilly November night air.
The bottom line.
The Titans have been winning low scoring affairs of late but the mounting injuries and the even shorter, short week because of the travel day may be too much to overcome against a Packer team that finally inhaled the sweet air of victory after a sour month. The seasons have turned. moving from fall to winter on the tundra and the Packers are intent on keeping their 2022 season alive.
I like the Pack 23-18.
