TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s export-dependent economy likely slipped into a recession in the first quarter, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, weighed down by sluggish demand for technology products amid global economic woes.
Gross domestic product (GDP) likely fell 1.25% in the January-March period versus a year earlier, the poll of 24 economists showed. The GDP had contracted 0.41% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
The economists’ forecasts for preliminary GDP data due on Friday varied widely from a contraction of 2.9% to growth of
0.2%.
Exports slid annually for a seventh consecutive month in March, with a prognosis from the government that the downturn may continue until at least the fourth quarter.
“Semiconductor exports are facing a severe downturn due to the ending of the pandemic-related demand, a rise in interest rates, and escalation of U.S.-China tech tensions,” according to a DBS research report.
The government has said it expects full-year 2023 growth of 2.12%, its slowest pace in nearly eight years and lower than the 2.45% growth for 2022.
Taiwan is a key hub in the global technology supply chain for giants such as Apple Inc, and home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC).
Taiwan’s preliminary figures will be released in a statement with minimal commentary. Revised figures will be released a few weeks later, with more details and forward-looking forecasts.
(Poll compiled by Anant Chandak, Madhumita Gokhale and Carol Lee; Reporting by Faith Hung; Editing by Ben Blanchard and Uttaresh Venkateshwaran)
