(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
John Jerome Christopher
Williams, Powell, Fed Waller,
New York Chair, Governor,
Fed permanent permanent
President, voter: “We voter:
permanent want to see “There’s
voter: convincing nothing
“It’s evidence that is
still an really, that saying we
open we have need to do
question reached the anything
as we go appropriate imminent
forward, level.” Sept anytime
have we 20, 2023 soon, so we
got can just
sufficient sit there,
ly wait for
restrictiv the data,
e” to see if
bring things
inflation continue.”
sustainabl Sept. 5,
y down to 2023
2%. Sept.
7, 2023
Patrick Lisa Cook, Philip Michelle
Harker, Governor, Jefferson, Bowman,
Philadelphia permanent Governor and Governor,
Fed President, voter: Vice Chair permanent
2023 voter: “If Designate, voter:
“Right now, I confirmed, permanent “Inflation
think that I will voter: “The is still
we’ve probably stay economy faces too high,
done enough.” focused on multiple and I
Aug. 24, 2023 inflation challenges, expect it
until our including will likely
job is inflation, be
done.” banking-secto appropriate
June 21, r stress, and for the
2023 geopolitical (Fed) to
instability. raise rates
The Federal further and
Reserve must hold them
remain at a
attentive to restrictive
them all.” level for
June 21, 2023 some time
to return
inflation
to our 2%
goal in a
timely
way.” Sept
22, 2023
Raphael Michael Barr, Loretta
Bostic, Austan Vice Chair of Mester,
Atlanta Fed Goolsbee, Supervision, Cleveland
President, Chicago permanent Fed
2024 voter: “I Fed voter: “I’ll President,
feel policy is President, just say for 2024 voter:
appropriately 2023 myself, I “Probably
restrictive.” voter: think we’re we need to
Aug. 31, 2023 “The risk close.” July bring rates
of 10, 2023 up another
inflation notch….It
staying doesn’t
higher necessarily
than where have to be
we want it September,
is the but I think
bigger this year.”
risk.” Aug. 26,
Sept 25, 2023
2023
Mary Daly, San Neel
Francisco Fed Susan Kashkari,
President, Collins, Minneapolis
2024 voter: Boston Fed Fed
“Patience is a President, President,
prudent 2025 2023 voter:
strategy.” voter: “I “I would have
Sept 22, 2023. expect thought with
rates may 500 basis
have to points or 525
stay basis points
higher, of interest
and for rate
longer, increases we
than would have
previous slammed the
projection brakes on
s had consumer
suggested. spending, and
” Sept 22, it has not.”
2023 Sept 22, 2023
Lorie Logan,
Dallas Fed
President,
2023 voter:
“My base
case, though,
is that there
is work left
to do.” Sept.
7, 2023
Thomas
Barkin,
Richmond Fed
President,
2024 voter:
“The
reacceleratio
n scenario
has come onto
the table in
a way that it
really wasn’t
three or four
months ago.”
Aug. 22, 2023
Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%.
Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed’s president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
