A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Brigid Riley
After a rough September, investors will be looking for something positive to kick off the fourth quarter, although a dump of economic data from Europe on Monday may not give them the lift they want.
A round of purchasing managers index (PMI) data from across the globe continues with Europe on Monday, following Chinese PMI data over the weekend that pointed to mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month.
Markets have been feeling the pain after stocks, bonds and non-dollar currencies around the world mostly fell in the previous month, as investors adjusted to the idea that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer.
Meanwhile, the euro zone has been grappling with recession jitters amid a slew of other indicators, putting a damper on last week’s good news that inflation in the area fell to its lowest in two years.
Monday’s final manufacturing PMI data from the EU will be closely watched after the preliminary report last month painted a mixed picture of the region’s economic health; the index showed a rise in September from August’s 33-month low, yet still lingered below the mark separating expansion from contraction.
Chinese markets are closed all week for holidays and Indian markets are shut on Monday, but this week will give investors and central banks alike plenty of fresh material to go on, including euro zone unemployment numbers out on the same day and the crucial producer price index later in the week.
Meanwhile, oil prices are up again on Monday, reversing some of Friday’s losses.
As usual, the future of the Federal Reserve interest rates will be in focus as several U.S. central bank officials prepare for speeches scheduled through the week, starting with a handful of Fed speakers on Monday.
Regardless of indicator results, markets can find at least some temporary cheer in a last-minute stopgap funding bill that allows the U.S. government to keep operating through Nov. 17, meaning key data releases from the world’s largest economy, including Friday’s monthly payrolls report, will be rolled out on time.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
-September final manufacturing PMI for euro zone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, UK and U.S.
-August unemployment data for euro zone and Italy
-September UK house prices
-Central bank speakers: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, NY Fed President John Williams, Philly Fed President Patrick Harker, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
(Reporting by Brigid Riley; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
