TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s trade-dependent economy likely grew faster in the third quarter than the second thanks to resilient domestic consumption and a tentative rebound in exports, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have expanded 2.1% in the July-September period versus a year earlier, the poll of 20 economists showed. GDP grew 1.36% year-on-year in the second quarter, having slipped into recession in the first.
The economists’ forecasts for preliminary GDP data due on Tuesday varied widely from an expansion of just 0.5% to as much as 3.75%.
Taiwan’s exports emerged from a year-long decline in September, rising for the first time in 13 months on increased demand from the United States ahead of the year-end holiday shopping season.
Third quarter exports dropped 5.1% compared with the same period in 2022, a marked improvement on the second quarter’s annual contraction of 16.9%.
Kevin Wang, an economist at Taishin Securities Investment Advisory in Taipei, said although external demand for made-in-Taiwan goods was picking up, the momentum was not strong.
“Private consumption was the bright spot in the third quarter, owing to the contribution of the peak summer vacation season,” he added.
The government’s statistics bureau said in August it expects full-year 2023 growth of 1.61%, its slowest pace in eight years and lower than the 2.45% growth for 2022.
The economy in China, Taiwan’s largest export market, grew at a faster-than-expected clip in the third quarter, expanding 4.9% from the year earlier.
Taiwan is a key hub in the global technology supply chain for giants such as Apple Inc, and home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC).
Taiwan’s preliminary GDP figures will be released in a statement with minimal commentary. Revised figures will be released a few weeks later, with more details and forward-looking forecasts.
(Poll compiled by Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Jeanny Kao; Editing by Sam Holmes)
