The first AFC visitor of the year comes to Lambeau Field on Sunday and it might be the last visit for legendary coach Bill Belichick as he brings his 1-2 New England Patriots to face the 2-1 Packers. Aside from the likely curtain call for the six time Super Bowl winning coach, there’s not a lot of cache’ about this matchup with the Pack heavily favored to claim their third straight victory.
That’s not to say there haven’t been some memorable moments in this rare inter-conference series which New England actually leads 6-5. The Pat’s first trip to Green Bay was historic, almost 43 years ago to the day, on October 1 of 1979, Green Bay hosted New England in the first Monday night game played at Lambeau. The prime time show was well established by then and the Packers had appeared on 10 Monday nights between 1970 and 1978 but seven were on the road. The only three home Monday night games were played at Milwaukee County Stadium because it had better lighting for the network TV cameras than Lambeau offered. After spending money to upgrade the candle power at Lambeau, the Packers finally got to welcome Frank Gifford, Howard Cosell and the ABC gang to Green Bay.
The Patriots were coming off a Division Championship, were rolling again at 3-1 and prohibitive favorites against Bart Starr’s 1-3 Pack. It was an inspired defensive effort with a couple of big interceptions that fueled Green Bay ‘s 27-14 upset. It was one of Starr’s few signature victories in his tenure. A picture of high fiving Johnnie Gray and Mike McCoy adorned the cover the following year’s media guide.
These teams also have a noteworthy post-season history too as the glory was finally restored to Titletown when Mike Holmgren’s Packers defeated the Patriots of Bill Parcells 35-21 to capture Super Bowl XXXI in New Orleans in January of 1997. Memories of that game are seared into the cheeseheads, Favre to Rison on the audible, Freeman streaking up the sideline, Howard’s MVP capping kickoff return touchdown, Holmgren’s shoulder ride with confetti raining down.
The next time these teams played was 2002 and Belichick was already a couple of years into his tenure. He’s been on the winning side three of the five times since, most recently, the 31-17 win in Foxborough back in 2018.
So how will this one play out?
When the Packers have the ball.
Prepare for the unknown and be ready to adjust. That’s been the talking point for the coaching staff all week anticipating what Belichick will try to take away from the Packers with fronts, formations and pressures. Matt LaFleur said this week, “you never know what you’re going to get.” The guess here is Belichick will want to limit the possibilities of having Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillon control the game. The Packers need to get the ball in their hands to reduce the need for quick strike run-pass option throws and open up play action that can afford more time for downfield throws. There’s still an unsteadiness about the offensive line and it’s likely we’ll see another day of rotating series at left tackle with David Bakhtiari and Yosh Nijman. Elgton Jenkins is expected to go at right tackle but don’t be surprised if Jake Hanson gets another look at right guard for the up and down Royce Newman. If the box is stacked to stop the run, it’s incumbent on the wide receivers to beat the man coverage required with that type of attention. Romeo Doubs, coming off his NFL Rookie of the Week performance against Tampa Bay found holes in zones for his 8 receptions, gaining separation with press man coverage is a bit different. If Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb are blanketed, the best bet matchups for Aaron Rodgers might be with his tight ends. Robert Tonyan is second on the team with 11 receptions so far and it’s looking like his knee is back to the pre-ACL snapping game at Kansas City last year. He along with Josiah Deguara or Tyler Davis could offer Rodgers some welcome options. Matthew Judon is the one to watch bringing pressure but if too much attention’s paid his way, Deatrich Wise Jr. can get home with a team high 4 sacks. Free safety Devin McCourty will quarterback the back end for New England and Rodgers will make a lot of decisions based on where he sees him line up. I was more impressed with the Pack’s first half execution against a really good Tampa defense than I was distressed about the second half struggles. It’s incumbent on Matt LaFleur to package another strong opening script with the necessary adjustments to ensure a productive offense four four quarters.
When the Patriots have the ball.
It’s 34 year old Brian Hoyer under center, starting for the injured Mac Jones who suffered a severe high ankle sprain last week. As a rookie, he helped bridge the post-Tom Brady cap by helping a 7-9 non-playoff team in 2020 to a 10 win Wild Card team last season. Hoyer has been in the league since 2009, he’s on his 7th team and threw all of 11 passes a year ago (completing 9). He has started two games since the 2017 season. Hoyer wouldn’t be around if he wasn’t a capable player and the Packers won’t have as much success disguising coverages and pressures as they would if it was a young understudy taking snaps. Joe Barry’s defensive unit seems to be good problem solvers. In week one, there was an alarming out of air space for Minnesota receivers, they clamped down on Chicago the following week only to see the run defense rupture for 180 yards. Against Tampa, Leonard Fournette was eliminated and the defense played it’s most complete game. They’ll need to be stout on the ground again. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have almost equally split 64 carries and 305 rushing yards so far. The Patriots have moved the ball, ranking 10th in yards per game at 364.7. They’ve had trouble finishing drives. Forcing Hoyer to make plays will be key, especially against a defense that ranks number one in the NFL after three weeks on the money down. Green Bay allows third down conversions at a stingy 22% rate, holding the Goat, Brady to 2 of 11 last week. Beware of DeVante Parker’s speed on the perimeter but nothing else about the New England passing game should alarm the Pack, except Jaire Alexander’s groin injury. It’s possible Green Bay will line up how they finished in Florida when Alexander went down, with Rasul Douglas on the corner, Keiseasn Nixon taking over the slot and Shemar Jean-Charles working as the dime.
The bottom line.
The Packers have become dominant at home again under LaFleur, at least in the regular season. They are 23-2 since he took over and seeking a 15th straight regular season win at home which would be the third longest streak in franchise history. Consider it done.
I like the Pack 24-14.
