CONLEY COMMENTARY (WSAU) – The polling could not be worse for Joe Biden. This week’s Monmouth Poll puts his job approval rating at 34-percent, a low for his Presidency.
A week earlier, there was battleground state polling that showed Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan. The only battleground state were Biden had a narrow lead is Wisconsin. And since then there are two new polls; one shows Wisconsin tied, the other shows Trump leading by 4.
Before Trump supporters get all giddy, there’s another poll that I’d like to tell you about. It’s a survey from Rasmussen and the Heartland Institute. It didn’t ask about candidates, it asked about how people voted. People who voted by mail were told they wouldn’t get in trouble for being truthful, and they were asked if they broke the law in how they handled their absentee ballots. And the self-admitted reports of absentee ballot fraud were shockingly high.
21-percent say they submitted an absentee ballot for someone else. 17-percent said they submitted a mail-in ballot in a state where they no longer live. Another 17-percent said they signed or witnessed a ballot without the actual voter’s permission.
Well, each one of those votes is an illegal ballot – and should not have been counted. Now remember Arizona and Georgia were decided by less than 11,000. Wisconsin was decided by just over 20,000 votes. What does that mean? The results in several, very close battleground states were within the margin of fraud.
The take away is this: it’s very difficult to verify that mail-in ballots are legitimate votes. When those ballots arrive, they are often commingled with other legitimate votes. Then it becomes impossible to tell which are which.
Many states want to keep the COVID era voting rules in place, which means mail-in will continue to be a large percentage of ballots cast. One close state, Nevada, which has many people who live somewhere else, is switching to all mail-in voting. Someone who actually lives in, for instance, California, might be much more interested in voting from their Nevada address.
So battleground state polling that shows Donald Trump leading by a few percentage points probably won’t be decisive in heavy mail-in states. He’ll need a lead of 5, 6 or 7 percentage points to overcome mail-in ballot fraud.
Chris Conley
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