Live from Green Bay! It’s Saturday Night Live!
The NFC North Champion Green Bay Packers welcome the 4-9 Carolina Panthers to Lambeau Field for a rare, Saturday night special, kicking off at 7:15 PM. With their eyes on the big prize of the NFC’s number one seed, the Packers had better be careful to focus on the task at hand with a Panther team that has been very competitive under first year Head Coach Matt Rhule. 7 of their 9 losses have been by one score or less even though they have missed their best player for 10 of the 13 games. All Pro running back Christian McCaffrey is expected to miss yet another game but these cats can still be dangerous with a savvy quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, speed at the receiver position and a defense that has a penchant for ripping footballs loose, leading the league with 13 fumble recoveries.
But the way the Packer offense has been rolling all season, it’s hard to believe the visitors will be able to keep pace on what will be a chilly night under the Lambeau lights.
When the Packers have the ball.
The efficiency of the Green Bay offense has been remarkable this season. They usually score early and when they reach the red zone, or the gold zone as offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett calls it, they finish. Touchdowns have been scored on 37 of the 48 trips inside an opponent’s 20 yard line, a league leading 77% rate. Carolina tailors it’s defensive plan weekly, based on matchups, there’s not a standard personnel grouping or formation so it will be interesting to see where they devote the attention Saturday night. The Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams connection has been next to impossible to stop with scoring passes in each of the last eight games. If coverages roll toward Adams, Rodgers should find winnable matchups elsewhere. Aaron Jones will get a healthy dose of carries and even if explosive runs are hard to come by, it will set up the play action game. Look for a few more snaps from Tavon Austin. He caught a couple of balls early in Detroit last week as part of the opening 15 play script and more jet sweep action snaps could be in the offing. Denver’s Drew Lock fired four touchdown passes in Charlotte last week and Rodgers should soar past 40 TD’s on the season before game’s end.
When the Panthers have the ball.
So much will depend on how Bridgewater fares. His 70 percent completion rate is among the league leaders and he will test the Packer defense with deep shots to a speedy receiving corps and he’s not averse to scrambling to extend or gain yards as he has four rushing touchdowns this season. Mike Davis has been a serviceable replacement for McCaffrey with 555 yards but he’s not nearly as dynamic and not as much of a threat as a checkdown receiver. The key for the Packers will be to umbrella the deep coverage and close on tackles to limit yards after the catch. The pressure package is getting results of late with 11 sacks in the last two games and if the offense delivers another two score lead, look for more of the same. I just don’t believe the Panthers will be able to match the Packers point for point.
The bottom line.
The Packers have worked themselves into the prime position of the number one seed with three to play but they also know a stumble will knock them off that perch before the rest of the league goes to work on Sunday. Don’t see it happening. I like the Pack 27-20.
