Hello old friend, welcome to a Wisconsin winter. After a Sunday get together, why don’t one of us take a little trip to escape the cold and snow along the Gulf Coast of Florida? Take in a Super Bowl while we’re there.
The Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will renew their old acquaintance Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field (2:05 PM CST) in the NFC Championship Game. The winner will represent the conference in Super Bowl LV against the AFC Champion, either the Buffalo Bills or the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
From 1977 through 2001, these two teams were division rivals in the old NFC North, odd that a Florida team would be joined with the likes of the Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago northerners. The Buccaneers were actually a member of the AFC West in their expansion season of 1976, the memorable 0-14 first year of competition. The Battle of the Bays as it became known, produced plenty of interesting games through the years. By 1979, the upstart Bucs, built by a future Green Bay Packer General Manager in Ron Wolf, soared to the top of the North and were a game away from the Super Bowl but they fell to the Los Angeles by a score of 9-0. A year later, Lynn Dickey threw for over 400 yards but a pair of short, missed field goals by the trivial Tom Birney resulted in a 14-14 overtime tie. Who could forget the Snow Bowl of 1985? New arrival Keith Jackson catching three touchdown passes in the 1996 season opener, a year that finished with a Packer Super Bowl victory. Warren Sapp jawing with Brett Favre. Chad Clifton getting blindsided into a hospital bed. Once realignment shuffled the NFL deck in 2002, the Packers and Bucs have met just 8 times. Most recently, this past October where the Bucs handed the Pack their worst loss among the three, 38-10. That game, like the old black and blue division rivalry, was a long time ago.
These old friends have met just once in the playoffs, the Super Bowl XXXI champs opened their title defense against the Buccaneers at Lambeau Field and prevailed 21-7. The all-time series stands 33-22-1 in favor of the Packers.
Green vs Tampa and the stakes can’t get any higher. High drama awaits on the frozen tundra so it’s time to match ’em up.
When the Packers have the ball.
So much went wrong in week six, the extremely rare pick six, 13 quarterback hits, Aaron Jones averaging 1.5 yard per carry, not a single offensive snap on the plus side of the 50 yard line in the second half. The Buccaneer defense won the day, no question about it. Since then, the offense has functioned with near historic precision and they’re confident the game plan for the rematch will look a lot different.
For it to be successful, the offensive line must deliver in two ways. In the run game, the wide zone plays in October were futile because speedy inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David simply ran them down. Asking the interior linemen to step across the line of scrimmage and turn their bodies to execute reach blocks proved futile because those two playmakers were already by them. Offensive line coach Adam Stenavich said this week the run block angles have to improve. I say the Packers take a page from the Rams game plan and run right at the interior of the Bucs defense. Even if 300 pounder Vita Vea plays for the first time since early October, he’ll be far from top form. Getting bodies onto the inside linebackers early could create explosive runs, especially seeing how hard Jones, Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon attacked defenders last week.
The Bucs pressure came from everywhere in the regular season, coordinator Todd Bowles dialed up blitzes with corners, safeties and stunts up front that created confusion and miscommunication among the linemen. Center Corey Linsley told me they recalibrated a lot of their protection plans after that game and the communication has improved. Running backs will have to be on point to recognize where blitzers are coming from, tight ends might have to chip before resuming routes but Aaron Rodgers has also seen the alignments and pressure designs, he won’t make the same mistakes twice.
A more physical ground game, a well designed play action plan, and a go route or two to stretch the field, should keep the offense humming.
When the Buccaneers have the ball.
Tom Brady will play in his 14th conference championship game, he could get to an incredible tenth Super Bowl with a victory. He already has six rings and it would be even more if not for how the New York Giants played defense against him. The Packers need to look at those game films. The Giants did it with relentless pressure from the front four, particularly from the inside. The classic, pocket passing Brady can slide left or right but will rarely run outside. He’s even more dangerous by stepping up and releasing the ball when sensing the heat. If the pocket collapses from the middle first and quickly, escape routes via arm and leg will be diminished. Brady, like any quarterback, doesn’t like getting hit, the Packers must bounce him around or get him to the ground.
The secondary will have one less weapon to deal with as Antonio Brown’s knee injury will keep him out. The Packers still have to deal with Mike Evans, particularly in the red zone, and Chris Godwin over the middle. The nickel coverage should hold up against Scott Miller and rookie Tyler Johnson.
Buoyed by strong showings against Derrick Henry and David Montgomery in the final two games, and limited explosive runs from LA’s Cam Akers last week, the Packers believe they’re ready to tangle with Tampa’s two back tandem of Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette.
I expect to see a lot of Za’Darius Smith lining over the guards on passing downs to work with Kenny Clark on crushing the pocket and allowing Preston Smith and Rashan Gary to squeeze the edges.
The Bottom Line
Rodgers has something he’s never had since becoming the starting quarterback in 2008. A conference championship on his home field. The Buccaneers in Brady’s first season at the helm, winners of two straight playoff games on the road, have a chance to make it three and become the first team to play a Super Bowl on their home field at Raymond James Stadium in two weeks. Legendary quarterbacks competing at the most illustrious venue will make for fantastic theater.
I like the Packers 26-23.
