It has to start somewhere.
Never imagined the 2021 Green Bay Packers season would begin in Jacksonville, Florida however. An angry girl named Ida made that happen as the nasty hurricane not only pushed the New Orleans Saints west to Fort Worth, Texas to train, but is also sending the opening game on the schedule east to TIAA Bank Stadium, the normal home of the Jaguars. It’s still the Fox Network’s America’s Game of the Week with a 3:25 PM CDT kickoff.
Before diving into the matchup, a couple end of the week practice notes need covering. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith, after practicing on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday, did not participate in the final workout today. His nagging back injury didn’t suffer a setback according to Head Coach Matt LaFleur, and it could be a game time decision on whether he plays. Smith was officially listed as questionable by the Packers on the week’s final injury report. The only player ruled out is backup safety Vernon Scott who has missed the last two weeks with a hamstring pull. Defensive tackle Tyler Lancaster is also questionable with back issues.
For the Saints, defensive back Ken Crawley and wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith have been ruled out. Both are starters. Backup offensive tackle James Hurst is questionable. The other starting corner, Marshon Lattimore, was a full participant on Friday and is expected to go.
The NFL moved the game to Jacksonville late last week after the Saints announced they’d remain in Texas at least through the end of the month. New Orleans wasn’t scheduled to play again at the Superdome until week four. Ticket sales have understandably been slow and LaFleur urged all Packer fans in northeastern Florida to help out the team and show up if they can.
So what can we expect on what’s expected to be a hot, humid Florida afternoon? The forecast calls for a high of 86 with a 30% chance of an isolated thundershower.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
There’s no doubt the spotlight will be on two players who will be side by side on every snap. Second round draft pick Josh Myers at center and fifth round pick Royce Newman at right guard. LaFleur can’t ever recall being on a team with 40 percent of his offensive line making their NFL debut on opening day. You can be sure New Orleans defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is aware of the two rookies. In last year’s 37-30 Packer victory in New Orleans in week 3, Aaron Rodgers said the Saints brought pressure on 50% of his dropbacks. I have a feeling a similar amount of pressure will be coming Sunday, aimed right at Myers and Newman. If the pocket holds and running backs carry out their protection assignments, Rodgers could get his season off to a rousing start. The New Orleans secondary is hurting with one starter (Crawley) out, another (Lattimore) hurting and a third corner (Bradley Roby) is still trying to learn the names of his new teammates after getting acquired from the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Saints also added Desmond Trufant, the former Falcon after training camp began. 13 year veteran Malcolm Jenkins will be asked to quarterback this collection from his safety position.
New Orleans will hope their two excellent edge rushers, Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport get home against tackles Billy Turner and Elgton Jenkins. The most likely blitzers will be Kwon Alexander and Kaden Elliss.
An effective running game will also cool the pass rush heat but Aaron Jones didn’t get a single carry in the pre-season. Jones and A.J. Dillon will need to keep the front seven honest and if they do, the perimeter players will have more opportunities to make plays. Davante Adams didn’t play in New Orleans last year but Allen Lazard had a big game (6/146 1 TD). Tight ends Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis also found the end zone. Throw in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Randall Cobb into that combustible mix against a thin secondary and there could be fireworks.
Only if the two kids on the front line don’t get overwhelmed by the circumstance of their professional baptism and the New Orleans Saints pass rush.
WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL
A year ago, New Orleans had three superstar players on offense. To start this season, the Saints are down to just one. Drew Brees is in retirement and wide receiver Michael Thomas is on the physically unable to perform list and he’ll miss the first six weeks. That leaves Alvin Kamara to shoulder the load and take some pressure off Jameis Winston, the former Buccaneer number one pick who will make his first start at quarterback for New Orleans. Kamara is arguably the most dangerous running back in the league when he finds space through holes on the run or in the passing game. He tortured the Packer defense a year ago with 13 receptions for 139 yards and two scores including a 52 yard catch and run that had five would be tacklers come up empty. He also averaged almost 10 yards a carry on the ground (6/58).
With Thomas, and now Smith ruled out, second year pro Marquez Callaway will be Winston’s top target. In his final year with the Buccaneers, Winston joined the infamous 30-30 club, touchdown passes and interceptions. He threw only 7 passes, completing five in his first season in New Orleans before beating out Taysom Hill for the starting job this summer. While Brees got rid of the ball extremely fast and rarely throwing more than 15-20 yards downfield, Winston is more apt to take deep shots. He did throw for over 5000 yards in his best season in Tampa. That’s where communication will be key for the Packer secondary which did a pretty fair job a year ago of not seeing balls go over their heads on explosive plays.
New defensive coordinator Joe Barry will unveil his new scheme on Sunday and much of it will be centered on pre-snap disguise. Showing one coverage but shifting into another in concert with pressure coming from unexpected places.
The Saints offensive line is very good, especially at tackle with Andrus Peat and former Wisconsin Badger Ryan Ramczyk. Just as New Orleans will apply pressure between the tackles, so will Green Bay, hoping for pocket collapsing from Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry or rookie T.J. Slaton.
Sure and swarm tackling of Kamara is a must but if the Packers can keep him in check, I’m not convinced Winston will consistently beat the secondary with a depleted receiving corps.
THE SPECIAL TEAMS
The Packers debut a new punter, the Saints will debut a new kicker. Corey Bojorquez has replaced J.K. Scott and practice squad veteran Aldrick Rosas will handle the kicking for the Saints with steady Will Lutz on injured reserve.
While Green Bay will debut rookies in the return roles, Kylin Hill on kickoffs and Amari Rodgers on punts, New Orleans has a very dangerous player handling both duties in Deonte Harris. Green Bay special teams coordinator Maurice Drayton said he’s the “real deal”. Without two of the top cover team players from year ago (Randy Ramsey and Will Redmond), on what was already a shaky unit last year, Harris could prove to be a difference maker.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Even without any pre-season games last year, the Packers offense lit up the Minnesota Vikings on the road on opening day a year ago. While the heat could wear down the players, the Saints have to deal with it too and I think Green Bay’s offense has too much firepower. There will be mistakes which lead to big plays but the Packers will make more of them. I think it will be a positive start on a neutral field.
Green Bay 34 New Orleans 27.
