Go west young men!
The 1-1 Green Bay Packers have another early season measuring stick in prime time this Sunday when they travel to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California to meet the 2-0 San Francisco 49ers. Kickoff is at 7:20 PM CDT.
Trip number one in 2021 was to a neutral site in Florida and it went even further south for Head Coach Matt LaFleur’s team. Now he’ll have to match wits with his close friend, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan who got the better of his buddy in two of three previous meetings including the convincing 2019 NFC Championship Game.
The Packers recovered from the 38-3 drubbing at the hands of the New Orleans Saints in Jacksonville to pull away from the Detroit Lions in their home opener last Monday night, 35-17, outscoring the division rivals 21-0 in the second half.
San Francisco meanwhile, opened with a 41-33 hold on for dear life victory at Ford Field against the Lions and last week, won a gritty, 17-11 game at Lincoln Financial Field against Philadelphia, keeping the Eagles out of the end zone until the 4th quarter. This will be their home opener at Levi’s and the first true partisan full house for the Packers to deal with since that same conference title game disaster.
The teams did meet last year in Northern California but it was a varsity versus a JV game because the Niners were wiped out by injury and Green Bay won comfortably. That won’t be the case Sunday night. While San Francisco has had their running back corps thinned and a defensive back lost, it’s nothing like the epidemic of a year ago.
So can the Packers pick up where they left off in the second half at Lambeau and measure up as 3 1/2 point underdogs? Let’s match it up.
When the Packers have the ball.
This will be a classic case of strength versus weakness. The 49ers defensive line is loaded with three of their four players number one picks, all very talented. Nick Bosa, among the players who were out last year, provides explosion off the edge, recording two sacks last week. Arik Armstead is a tall and powerful rusher on the other side. Last year’s top pick, Javon Kinlaw, creates havoc inside. Asked to move them in the running game and protect the franchise in the passing game will be two rookies, a one game starter and perhaps a new face on the blind side.
The Packers listed left tackle Elgton Jenkins as doubtful for the game with an ankle injury. He got hurt against Detroit but gutted it out to the finish but didn’t practice all week. LaFleur said Friday they won’t rule Jenkins out unless they absolutely have to come Sunday night. Jenkins has held up well in place of All Pro David Bakhtiari who won’t come off the Physically Unable to Perform list for another month. There’s center Josh Myers, right guard Royce Newman, the NFL freshmen, with second year pro Jon Runyan at left guard and reliable vet Billy Turner at right tackle. LaFleur said they have a plan at left tackle if Jenkins is out but didn’t reveal it. The team could move Turner to the left side, he’s done that before. Or they could insert young Yosh Nijman or former Titan veteran Dennis Kelly. However it’s sorted out, the Packers will be at a decided disadvantage.
Aaron Rodgers was asked this week if it behooves the offense to keep a back in for max protection or trust the front five to hold up long enough to get the ball out quickly for short to intermediate routes. Rodgers prefers the later to keep Aaron Jones available in the passing game, a matchup that overmatched the Lion for three of the running back’s four touchdowns.
Downfield, Davante Adams has been getting suffocating attention, especially in the red zone over the first two weeks. He still found room to catch 8 balls for 121 yards last week. If the 49ers follow suit, it’ll be time for Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard, both catch-less a week ago, to step up and win one on one matchups.
Green Bay’s offense is diverse enough to make plays and move the ball, they’ll need to finish red zone possessions with touchdowns, not field goals, to have a fighting chance.
When the 49ers have the ball.
San Francisco is down to running backs 4, 5 and 6 after just two games. Raheem Mostert is done for the year, a couple more backs are nicked and the Niners had to teach out to practice squads and even the XFL to fill up the depth chart. Trey Sermon, their third round pick, cleared the concussion protocol this week and should be the feature back. Shanahan’s wide zone scheme, copied by LaFleur, seems to produce rushing yards to matter who’s toting the mail.
Jimmy Garoppolo has fended off the arrival of number one pick Trey Lance so far. But for how long? Garoppolo has completed 70 percent of his passes in the first two weeks, with two touchdowns and no picks. 37% of his targets have been directed to Deebo Samuel, a terrific second round draft choice from two years ago. Brandon Aiyuk and veteran Mohamed Sanu are also on the perimeter.
Superstar tight end George Kittle has gotten off to a slow start but the Packers know how dangerous he can be.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Packers continue to match up in the secondary with Eric Stokes on the outside and Kevin King working the slot as they showed in the second half against the Lions.
If the front seven holds, coverage should be good enough. The only problem is can they cover long enough? The Packers are still without a sack and it became clear after a heated conversation between LaFleur and defensive coordinator Joe Barry before halftime against the Lions to bring pressure over staying back in coverage. Playing with a lead helped then and it certainly would again. I’m not sure the likes of Dean Lowry or Kingsley Keke can get the better of a veteran 49er offensive line so Preston Smith and Rashan Gary have to make their presence felt.
The bottom line.
The trolls may have gotten off their backs as Rodgers suggested but they’re still lurking if the team falls to 1-2. An early statement road victory against a solid team is possible but I’m not sure they can overcome the home opening energy at Levi’s.
I like the 49ers 23-17.
