OSLO (Reuters) – Norway’s central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00% this week to curb inflation, economists polled by Reuters unanimously predicted.
Norwegian core consumer prices rose 6.4% year-on-year in July, more than three times the central bank’s goal of 2% annual price growth but down from a record 7.0% in June.
The July inflation print was broadly in line with Norges Bank’s own 6.3% forecast and policymakers are thus unlikely to repeat their hawkish June move, when they opted for a 50 bps rise, also referred to as a “double” hike, economists said.
“The risk of another double rate hike is clearly reduced,” Handelsbanken said in an Aug. 11 note to clients.
Norges Bank’s monetary policy committee has said it will likely hike the policy rate to 4.25% in the course of this year to prevent a continued rapid rise in prices and wages that could see inflation become entrenched.
“The recent economic trend has in our view increased the probability of a September hike following a hike in August, and we expect Norges Bank to signal this,” DNB Markets said on Aug. 11.
The Norwegian currency, which strengthened against the euro during the early parts of summer, has weakened following the release of the milder July inflation data.
The European Central Bank last month raised its key policy rate to 3.75%, but a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to temporarily pause its rate-hiking campaign at its September meeting.
All 31 economists polled in the Aug. 10-15 period said Norges Bank would announce on Thursday that it will increase its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.00%.
The poll’s median prediction showed that the policy rate is expected to hit a peak of 4.25% later in the third quarter, although some predicted it could rise to 4.50% by the end of the year.
(Reporting by Terje Solsvik, polling by Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan and Pai Sujith in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton)
