Vice President Kamala Harris vs Former President Donald Trump - Photo by CNN
WASHINGTON D.C. (WSAU) – As August comes to a close and election day is just 67 days away, former President Trump is making up ground nationwide against Vice President Kamala Harris after she surged in the polls in recent weeks.
According to Nate Silver’s Five Thirty-Eight polling average, Trump’s chance of winning on November 5th has seen a drastic jump since August 14th, when Harris held a 56.7% chance of winning, which now shows Trump with a 52.4% chance of winning while Harris’ odds fell to 47.3%. When broken down by state, Harris still holds a 53% to 47% advantage over Trump in Wisconsin and a 58% to 42% chance to win Michigan. In comparison, Trump has moved into a 52% to 48% advantage in both Pennsylvania and Nevada, as well as a 60% chance to win Arizona, a 63% chance to win Georgia, and a 65% chance to win North Carolina.
Despite the polling jump for Trump nationally, Republican candidates down the ballot haven’t seen the same kind of enthusiasm from voters, according to the latest data from Emerson/The Hill, which shows that only U.S. Senate Republican candidate Eric Hovde is polling within the margin of error Democratic opponent Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin at 49% to 48%, while candidates such as Kari Lake in Arizona are currently down seven percentage points to Democrat Ruben Gallego, David McCormick down four percentage points to Democrat Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Mike Rogers down six percentage points to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in Michigan.
One of the most notable data points to be revealed in this week’s polling comes from the latest Yahoo/YouGov poll, which showed that when voters who didn’t vote in 2022 were asked who they’d vote for come November, Trump led Harris 46% to 40% while the Vice President held just a two-point advantage with voters who voted in 2022. Trump also held a 48% to 45% job approval advantage over Harris with the more than 1,200 registered voters polled.
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