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CONLEY COMMENTARY (WSAU) – Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure is on hold until at least Friday. Trump claims that there have been productive talks between the United States and Iran, and he wants more time to see if any deal can be reached.
Iran denies this, saying that no talks have taken place.
Which is more likely to be true?
It is almost certain that there have been talks between Iran and the U.S. But… there’s a big caveat. We really have no way of knowing if the people we’re talking to have the authority to make a deal. Who is actually in charge of Iran is unclear. We are told that the ayatollah’s oldest son, Mojtaba Khamenei is the new Supreme Leader. But he hasn’t been seen in public since his father was bombed to death weeks ago. Several written statements have been issued in his name, but there are unlikely to be authentic. Intelligence suggests he was injured in the earlier bombings and may be incapacitated… or he has not consolidated power and key parts of the leadership that remains hasn’t coalesced around him.
Whomever was a part of Iran’s negotiating team in Geneva probably didn’t return home when the bombing started. Such a trip might have been impossible, and, why would they? They could still be in Geneva, or have sought shelter in a third nation. Might they still be willing to talk? Perhaps. But whom do they represent? If they were to reach some agreement with the United States, who back home would approve it?
Iran’s leadership has been fractured. No one is in charge. Rocket launches and threats are coming from random military leaders. They may have control over the troops they command, but no one has control over the country.
Waiting until Friday to see what happens in fine. But I suspect there’s no one on the other end of the phone.
Chris Conley
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