CONLEY COMMENTARY (WSAU) – My phone started buzzing yesterday as soon as the new Marquette Law School poll came out. It showed David Crowley leading Tom Tiffany, 51-44 percent. I’ve been asked over and over again, ‘do I believe it?’ My answer: Isn’t this the same poll that had Francesca Hong leading Crowley by 20-points before the primary?
So, I’m skeptical.
Polling in recent years has been a weather vane that often points in the wrong direction.
Might David Crowley win the race for governor? Perhaps. By 7 points? No, that’s unbelievable.
Marquette over-samples Democrats. That’s a legitimate polling technique. If a polling director believes the electorate on Election Day will be more “D”s than “R”s, that should be reflected in the polls. But if that educated guess is wrong, then the poll is wrong.
Something else that skews the polls is that, in the Trump era of politics, many MAGA voters and other Republicans won’t engage with pollsters. One part of the political spectrum is simply reluctant to take part.
There are many other polls that I’m skeptical of. I can’t imagine liberal democrat James Talerico winning in Texas. The polls that show a statistical tie are wrong.
Susan Collins in Maine has been trailing in polls before. Yet she always wins. I don’t think this election cycle will be any different.
Polls suggest Iowa, Kansas and Mississippi are U.S. Senate toss-ups. I doubt it.
Would Michigan really send a radical socialist to the Senate? Detroit and Dearbornistan might. Not the rest of the state.
We often forget that the only poll that matters is five days away – on Election Day. Media-types, like me, still put too much emphasis on polls that are often wrong.
Chris Conley
Comments