By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) – A top Federal Reserve official signaled Wednesday he was ready to open talks on when to begin reducing some of the central bank’s emergency support for the economy, even if only to clarify the Fed’s plans for doing so as the economy roars ahead and prices rise.
“I don’t want to overstate my concern,” Fed vice chair for supervision Randal Quarles said in remarks prepared for delivery at a Brookings Institution event. He noted he did not expect a round of 1970s-style breakout inflation, and that he was “fully committed” to a new Fed strategy that aims to keep monetary policy running full throttle while jobs recover.
But he also laid out the case for why the “upside” risks of higher inflation and faster than expected recovery may be mounting. In doing so, he became the highest ranking Fed official yet to “talk about talking about” a change in monetary policy.
Two Federal Reserve bank presidents have said they felt those discussions should start soon, if not right away.
Though “we need to remain patient” in any policy shift, Quarles said, “if my expectations about economic growth, employment and inflation over the coming months are borne out…and especially if they come in strong…it will become important for the (Federal Open Market Committee) to begin discussing our plans to adjust the pace of asset purchases at upcoming meetings.”
The Fed has been purchasing $120 billion in government securities since last spring. In December it said it would continue doing so until there had been “substantial further progress” towards the central bank’s maximum employment and 2% inflation goals.
The inflation hurdle will be cleared this year, and while employment is lagging, Quarles said the Fed may need to make clearer exactly what would qualify as “substantial” progress on jobs to guide people towards a possible policy shift.
“We may need additional public communications,” Quarles said. The Fed wants investors to anticipate its plans for the bond purchases to avoid any sharp adjustment in markets and rates when it begins. He said the current language represents “inherent communications challenges” because it does not rely on any particular measure of the job market.
An actual interest rate increase, Quarles said, “remains far in the future.”
(Writing by Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
