(Reuters) -China’s imports of soybeans, coal and iron ore in June rose from a year earlier, while those of crude oil, unwrought copper and rare earths fell, customs data showed on Friday.
Exports rose 8.6% in June from a year earlier, while China’s imports unexpectedly shrank 2.3%, suggesting manufacturers are front-loading orders in anticipation of tariffs from a growing number of trade partners.
A Reuters poll of economists had forecast 8.0% growth in exports and a 2.8% increase in imports, compared with 7.6% and 1.8%, respectively, in the previous month.
KEY POINTS:
* Soybeans: June imports at 11.11 mmt, up 10.7% y/y
* Crude oil: June imports at 46.45 mmt, down 11% y/y
* Unwrought copper: June imports at 436,000 mt, down 3% y/y
* Coal: June imports at 44.6 mmt, up 12% y/y
* Iron ore: June imports at 97.61 mmt, up 2.2% y/y
* Rare earths: June imports at 4,829 mt, down 3.6% y/y
Preliminary table of commodity trade data
Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.
COMMENT ON RARE EARTHS
LIU HAO, RARE EARTHS ANALYST, SHANGHAI METALS MARKET
“The fall in exports in June is expected as overseas buyers ramped up procurement in March to April, which arrived in China in May and volumes were reflected in May data. So, it’s normal to see buying recede a bit after a flurry of buying.”
COMMENT ON CHINA IMPORTS
DARIN FRIEDRICHS, CO-FOUNDER, SITONIA CONSULTING
“July imports should be very strong. There is definitely some more preparation and buying ahead of a potential Trump win in November. The market is pricing in the potential for that, but also the uncertainty around what trade actions might be put in place.”
COMMENT ON IRON ORE
XIE QINGWEI, ANALYST, SHANGHAI METALS MARKET
“The price drop in June constrained shipments of some non-mainstream cargoes; shipments among some mainstream miners also fell after having achieved the half-year targets.
“Even though there is a surge in shipments in the last two weeks in June, it takes at least two weeks to arrive in China, so it will probably be reflected in July data.”
COMMENT ON COPPER
ZHANG WEIXIN, ANALYST, CHINA FUTURES
“The lower imports fit into expectation. There was no need to import due to poor demand and high inventories in China. Also, high copper prices weighed down buying.”
LINKS: For details, see the official Customs website (www.customs.gov.cn)
BACKGROUND:
China is the world’s biggest crude oil importer and top buyer of coal, iron ore and soybeans.
(Reporting by Asia Commodities and Energy team; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
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