Photo by: Associated Press/Eric Hovde Campaign
MADISON, WI (WSAU) – One of the nation’s top political predictors is changing its estimate of Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race as it’s continuing to become the tightest race in the nation.
According to Cook Political’s latest model, businessman Eric Hovde and incumbent Tammy Baldwin’s U.S. Senate race has been changed from lean Democrat to a toss-up as Baldwin’s projected seven-point August lead has shrunk within the margin of error to just two points. The model details how both campaigns now view outside polls as outliers, such as the latest Marquette poll showing Baldwin up seven points and the latest Redfield and Wilton model showing Baldwin up five points.
Indicators that the race is growing tighter started last week when Senator Baldwin skipped an event with Vice President Kamala Harris in the Fox Valley on Thursday, keeping her total events this election cycle with the Democratic nominee to just one, which occurred in Madison back in July. Multiple sources also told Axios last week that “alarm bells” were ringing among Democrats in Wisconsin due to internal polling showing the race between Hovde and Baldwin a statistical tie.
Vice President Harris’ polling numbers in the Badger State have taken a large hit in recent weeks, with the latest Redfield and Wilton model showing Harris ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by just one percentage point, while the latest Trafalgar/Insider Advantage model shows Trump ahead of Harris in Wisconsin by 1.1 percentage points in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, betters on Polymarket pushed Trump’s lead nationally up to 8.6%, which marked his largest lead over Harris since she entered the race.
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