I was introduced to the NFL’s greatest rivalry as a 10 year old and I cried all the way home from Lambeau Field.
The Chicago Bears had just beaten the Green Bay Packers 13-10 in November of 1968. The game was tied late in the 4th quarter when the Monsters of the Midway forced a Donny Anderson punt. A fair catch was called by the Bears but it wasn’t the offense that came on to the field. It was the kickoff team, with kicker Mac Percival putting the ball on a tee. Without a rush, Percival calmly booted the game winning 43 yard field goal. Chicago invoked the rare (but not unprecedented) free kick rule to send Phil Bengston’s first Packer team to 3-4-1, making it obvious there wouldn’t be a 4th straight NFL Championship on the way. I had never heard of such a rule although Paul Hornung hit a free kick field goal against the Bears just a couple seasons earlier.
The first Packer-Bear game I covered in Chicago was in December of 1980. The Pack opened that season with the unforgettable 12-6 overtime victory when Chester Marcol caught a pinballed blocked field goal by Alan Page and scampered 25 yards for the game winning touchdown.
The rematch at Solider Field was an epic disaster. The Bears hadn’t forgotten that crazy finish and pummeled the Pack 61-7. I’ve only missed annual trips to the Windy City twice since then, when the 1982 players strike wiped out both games in the rivalry and last year because of the pandemic.
I’ve seen both teams dominate the series at times. Mike Ditka took returned to coach his beloved Bears in the early 80’s while Bart Starr was on the way out and Forrest Gregg was the next Lombardi legend to try and resurrect the franchise. But from 1983 when the series resumed, through 1991, the Bears punished the Packers going 14-4 including a streak of 8 in a row. It was war what with William Perry embarrassing the Packers with touchdown runs and catches, Charles Martin and Kenny Stills with wicked cheap shots. When the Bears beat Green Bay again in early 1992, they had built a 24 game lead in the all-time series standings.
But that was when the legend of Brett Favre was just getting started. From Favre, through Aaron Rodgers today, the Packers have gone 44-15 against the Bears, finally overtaking the series lead in 2017 and entering Sunday’s matchup, are now up 100-94 with 6 games ending in a tie, the last one occurring in 1953. The Packers denied Chicago playoff berths, division titles and even a trip to the Super Bowl along the way. Time to write another chapter.
A couple of late week notes before breaking down the matchups.
Friday, Head Coach Matt LaFleur announced Kevin King is a no go with the shoulder injury suffered last week in Cincinnati. Even though he practiced all week, Elgton Jenkins remains questionable but center Josh Myers is expected back after missing last game with a finger injury. The Packers also moved wide receiver Malik Taylor to the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday.
Down in Chicago, back up running back Damien Williams hit the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday. Already without David Montgomery (on IR), the Bears are down to their third string back, 6th round draft choice Khalil Herbert. Chicago had a far lengthier injury report with 10 players, including headliners Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Eddie Jackson and Allen Robinson listed as questionable.
When the Packers have the ball.
Keep the smelling salts handy. This will be an assault from the side of the ball that gives the Bears their best shot at victory. If Jenkins and Myers do return, the offensive line must brace for the pressure combination of Robert Quinn and Mack, they have 9 and a half of the teams league leading 18 sacks. They often line up on the same edge making life miserable for the offensive tackles or chip blocking tight ends and running backs. That also allows players like Hicks or Eddie Goldman to get one on one rush opportunities. Roquan Smith and Christian Jones are downhill closing linebackers. To cool the heat, the Packers have to run right at ’em. Aaron Jones taking the outside zone carries, A.J. Dillon pounding in between the tackles. Even LaFleur admitted Friday they’ll have to stay committed to the run even if yards are hard to come by. Getting behind the sticks will be a recipe for disaster. If the Packers keep the Bears honest with the run and play action protection holds, there are winnable matchups downfield. Maybe not against up and coming corner Jaylon Johnson who’s expected to man up with Davante Adams, but elsewhere across the secondary. I’m expecting second and third options in the passing game to have impactful days, be it Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan or as he showed last week out of the backfield, Dillon. The coaching staff and players got sick and tired hearing about their red zone blues so far this season but settling for field goals against an offensively challenged Chicago team will keep the home side in the game. The Bears have played two games at Soldier Field this year and they’ve yet to give up a single point in the first half of each. The Packers will get punched in the mouth but if they punch back, they should push above 20 points on the day.
When the Bears have the ball.
For a team that has gained more yards rushing than passing so far, now missing their top two rushers, it will be interesting to see what kind of game plan Head Coach Matt Nagy dials up for his rookie quarterback. Justin Fields will make his fourth career start on Sunday. The NFL passing game has proven to be quite an adjustment for the former Ohio State Buckeye. He certainly has the arm strength and athleticism to make plays but Fields hasn’t completed more than 12 passes in a single game. He may be more reliant on his legs than ever, but complicating matters is the hyperextended knee he suffered in last week’s win against the Raiders. The Bears would love to work the ball downfield with talented receivers like Robinson and Darnell Mooney but the leaky offensive line just hasn’t been able to hold up. A big reason the Bears only average 113 passing yards a game is the fact they’ve given up 18 sacks for 162 yards in losses. The biggest question I have is whether #1 pick Eric Stokes and whoever starts on the other corner, can clamp down on the Chicago wideouts enough. My guess is former Giant Issac Yiadom will get the nod for King, but Chandon Sullivan, newcomer Rasul Douglas or even practice squadder Quinton Dunbar might be options. Will Joe Barry deploy a spy to keep watch on Fields because of his mobility? The front seven should be able to neutralize the wounded ground attack and pressure packages will get Fields on the run. The Bears have had a hard time putting up points but, more red zone red flags, the Packers are the league’s worst team at caving in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on all 13 possessions inside the 20 this year. Forcing a scoring challenged team to kick field goals will increase the likelihood of a Packer victory.
The bottom line.
Unless the Packers turn generous with turnovers or surrender field position in the kicking game, I don’t believe the Bears will be able to consistently move the ball. It won’t be easy for the Packers to pile up yards but they have far more experienced and productive skill players at their disposal to put more points on the board.
I like the Pack, 23-16.
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