By Karen Lema
MANILA (Reuters) -Higher U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty have worsened the economic outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific, the Asian Development Bank said in a report on Wednesday as it lowered its growth forecasts for the region for this year and next.
Domestic demand is expected to weaken as factors including geopolitics, supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices and uncertainty in China’s property market buffer the region, the Asian Development Outlook report said.
The ADB cut its 2025 growth forecast for the region to 4.7% from a projection of 4.9% made in April, and the forecast for 2026 was trimmed to 4.6% from 4.7%.
“Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year. But the economic outlook has weakened amid intensifying risks and global uncertainty,” ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said.
Among the subregions, Southeast Asia is expected to slow the most, with growth now projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, down from earlier forecasts of 4.7% for both years.
“Economies in the region should continue strengthening their fundamentals and promoting open trade and regional integration to support investment, employment, and growth,” Park said
The ADB defines developing Asia and the Pacific as 46 economies ranging from China to Georgia to Samoa, and excluding countries such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
The forecasts were shortly after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Japan had struck a deal that includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports, lower than a threatened 25% rate.Trump also announced a new 19% tariff rate for goods from the Philippines, below the threatened 20% levy flagged earlier this month but still above a 17% rate announced in April.
Trump has upended global trade flows with tariffs on nearly every trading partner, with almost all countries facing a 10% tariff that took effect in April and many facing steep additional tariffs from August 1.
GDP GROWTH 2023 2024 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026
DEC APRI JULY APRI JULY
L L
Caucasus and 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.0 5.1
Central Asia
East Asia 4.8 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.0
China 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.3
South Asia 7.8 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.9 6.2 6.2
India 9.2 6.5 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.7
Southeast 4.1 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.2 4.7 4.3
Asia
Indonesia 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1
Malaysia 3.6 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.3 4.8 4.2
Myanmar 0.8 -0.7 n/a 1.1 n/a 1.6
Philippines 6.0 6.2 6.0 5.6 6.1 5.8
5.5
Singapore 1.8 4.4 2.6 2.6 1.6 2.4 1.5
Thailand 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.8 1.8 2.9 1.6
Vietnam 7.1 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.0
5.1
The Pacific 4.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5
Developing 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6
Asia
INFLATION
Caucasus and 10.2 6.8 6.2 6.9 7.8 5.9 6.7
Central Asia
East Asia 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.6
China 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4
South Asia 7.9 6.5 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.5
India 5.4 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.0
Southeast 4.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.7
Asia
Indonesia 3.7 2.3 2.8 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0
Malaysia 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4
Myanmar 27.5 27.8 n/a 29.3 20.0
Philippines 6.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.2 3.0 3.0
Singapore 4.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.2
Thailand 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.8
Vietnam 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.2 3.8
The Pacific 3.1 2.0 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.7
Developing 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.1
Asia
(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by John Mair)
Comments