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CONLEY COMMENTARY (WSAU) – The success or failure of any deal with Iran is simple. It’s a success if they don’t get a nuclear weapon. That’s all.
That was the goal when we started this conflict. It’s still the goal at the end of it.
Everything else is background noise.
Who controls the Strait of Hormuz? Well, it is an international waterway that should be navigable to all nations. But the world has tolerated de facto Iranian control for decades. It would be nice if that changed, but it’s not a requirement. World shipping has operated under the current system for a long time.
Regime change would have been nice. But whoever is in charge of Iran is irrelevant if they don’t have the bomb. There are many other nations; Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, The Congo, they’re all ruled by bad actors. They don’t matter because they aren’t nuclear-armed.
Could Iran be offered some relief from sanctions? Could they get some of their frozen assets? Could they be allowed to export more of their oil? Yes. And the current peace plan appears to wisely phase in those reforms as other targets are met, the removal of nuclear material and refining equipment.
Donald Trump’s opponents will claim that each one of these points is a failure; that he fell short of his goals in a war of choice. Not true. The goal was that Iran would not have a nuclear weapon. And I believe that goal has been achieved. We will forget a few months of high gas prices. We will live with the benefits of no nukes in Iran’s hands for a much longer period.
Remember previous attempts at a de-nuclearized Iran. Barack Obama literally bribed the mullahs with pallets of money dropped on the airport tarmac. The best deal he could negotiate was a 10 year pause on nuclear activity. That 10 years would have been up, now, in 2026. It was Donald Trump who correctly saw that such an agreement was unacceptable.
Total victory? No. Victory on the point that mattered most? Apparently, yes.
Chris Conley
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