By Fergal Smith
TORONTO (Reuters) – Canada should focus on boosting economic growth after getting pummeled by the COVID-19 crisis, analysts say, even as concerns about the sustainability of its debt are growing, with Fitch downgrading the nation’s rating just over a week ago.
Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau will deliver a “fiscal snapshot” on Wednesday that will outline the current balance sheet and may give an idea of the money the government is setting aside for the future.
As the economy recovers, some fiscal support measures, which are expected to boost the budget deficit sharply, could be wound down and replaced by incentives meant to get people back to work and measures to boost economic growth, economists said.
“The only solution to these large deficits is growth, so we need a transition to a pro-growth agenda,” said Craig Wright, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
The IMF expects Canada’s economy to contract by 8.4% this year. Ottawa is already rolling out more than C$150 billion in direct economic aid, including payments to workers impacted by COVID-19.
Further stimulus measures could include a green growth strategy, as well as spending on infrastructure, including smart infrastructure, economists said. Smart infrastructure makes use of digital technology.
“We have to make sure that government spending is calibrated to the economy of the future rather than the economy of the past,” Wright said.
Canada lost one of its coveted triple-A ratings in June when Fitch downgraded it for the first time, citing the billions of dollars in emergency aid Ottawa has spent to help bridge the downturn caused by COVID-19 shutdowns.
Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and DBRS still give Canadian debt the highest rating. At DBRS, Michael Heydt, the lead sovereign analyst on Canada, says his concern is about potential structural damage to the economy if the slowdown lingers too long.
Fiscal policymakers “need to be confident that there is a recovery under way before they start talking about (debt) consolidation,” Heydt said.
Fitch expects Canada’s total government debt will rise to 115.1% of GDP in 2020 from 88.3% in 2019.
Royce Mendes, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said the economy still needs more support.
“Turning too quickly toward austerity would be a clear mistake,” he said.
(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Dan Grebler)
