Tripping badly over the first hurdle thrown in front of them this season, a dreadful, 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints on the neutral field in Jacksonville, the Green Bay Packers have cleared every one since. It hasn’t been easy, finding ways to win without their All Pro left tackle and Pro Bowl linebacker throughout, losing key players to injury, inserting street free agents into the starting lineup, winning last week without their top three receivers. The highest hurdle so far awaits Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City where the Packers meet the Chiefs without MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
His absence has been well documented and discussed ad nauseum since he tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week. It’s time to focus on the football that will be handled for the first time as an NFL starting quarterback by Jordan Love.
He will face a team that has won and lost a Super Bowl in the last two seasons but enters this game with a surprisingly average record of 4-4. Andy Reid’s club has been bitten by the turnover bug, untimely penalties and a defense that has had difficulty stopping anyone this year.
Can Love lead the Packers to an eighth straight victory and keep them atop the NFC race for the conference’s number one seed?
When the Packers have the ball.
The pressure on Love will be intense but it’s not like he just walked into this situation. Last year’s top draft pick had to deal with a virtual off-season his rookie year, no pre-season games and a bare minimum of reps running Matt LaFleur’s offense. But he kept up with the bookwork and when Rodgers stayed away all summer contemplating his future with the team, Love took advantage of the snaps throughout the off-season program and in all three pre-season games before going back to scout team duty when Rodgers returned. He’s a year and a half into the system, he knows the language, the other 10 players in the huddle know him and now it’s simply time to play.
Against the league’s 29th ranked defense, Love may not be asked to make the big plays. Look for a run-centric game plan utilizing Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon much like they did last week against the Cardinals when they were so shorthanded on the perimeter. The touches will also include check downs, flares and screens to the big to try and get them into space.
When Love does drop back, protection against the likes of Chris Jones, Frank Clark and newly acquired Melvin Ingram will have to hold up. If it does, Love will have both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling back and running patterns. Adams came off the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday and on Saturday, MVS was activated off the injured reserve list where he spent the past month working through a hamstring injury.
The loss of Robert Tonyan will hurt, but the strength of LaFleur’s game plans of late has been finding ways to incorporate other talents into the attack. Josiah Deguara and Dominique Dafney can’t run the same routes as Tonyan, but there will be opportunities for them elsewhere in the Kansas City secondary that has consistently sprung leaks this fall.
Look for Green Bay to attack free safety Daniel Sorensen who lines up in a lot of different places but who has struggled in matchups.
A heavy ground game, with manageable down and distance situations is the best way to keep Love comfortable and hopefully, productive.
When the Chiefs have the ball.
When Patrick Mahomes isn’t throwing interceptions (10) or getting the ball knocked out of his hands (two lost fumbles last week), the Chiefs are still an extremely dangerous offense. Exceptional speed outside with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, one of the best tight ends in the business in Travis Kelce.
What teams have done lately is something the Packer offense has become familiar with, keeping both safeties high, not letting explosive plays get over the head, then rallying to the ball that has to be thrown in front of them. The Chiefs often run tandem crossing routes with Hill stretching over the middle deep, other targets running in the same direction but with shallower routes. This will be a big test for the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in De’Vondre Campbell to be alert when dropping in coverage.
Kansas City’s running game took a hit when Clyde Edwards-Helaire wound up on injured reserve. They haven’t found a consistent yardage gainer with Darrell Williams or Derrick Gore.
Despite a hamstring injury to Dean Lowry which has him questionable for the game, the Packers run defense has improved steadily through the seven game winning streak and if it remains stout, could keep the Chiefs behind the sticks.
That’s when Mahomes can be at his most dangerous by extending plays, or his most confounding by a noticeable drop in accuracy downfield and a penchant for poor decision making which has upped his interception numbers.
Kevin King should be back this week but look for him to work inside as Rasul Douglas stays on the edge at corner opposite rookie Eric Stokes.
The Chiefs average 26 points a game but managed only a couple of touchdowns and needed two fourth quarter field goals to avoid a devastating upset at home by the New York Giants last Monday night.
A relatively short week against a Packer team on 9 days rest could also play a role.
The bottom line.
I have no doubt Love will give a decent accounting of himself. He’s smart and athletic enough but again, this is his first go ’round. There will be mistakes sure, but he also will make some plays. The rest of the Green Bay playmakers know they’ll need to do just a little bit more to help out. My concern is still with the defense. If Kansas City quits hurting themselves, they should put up points, averaging 26 a game. If they hit that average, I don’t think the Packers will be able to match it.
I like Kansas City 27-20.
