Jay Phagan / CC
CONLEY COMMENTARY (WSAU) – It’s much easier to be a political analyst than a prognosticator. The past is easier to tell than the future.
Election Day is a week away.
And here’s a little nugget: Incumbents who are below 50-percent in the polls are going to lose. That means some democrats who are hoping to eek out a wins won’t.
Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson has climbed over 50-percent in the last two statewide polls. He’ll win reelection over Mandela Barns. In Michigan’s governor’s race, Gretchen Witmer has languished at 48-percent. She’ll lose.
Consider Georgia, where Raphael Warnock, the incumbent, has not trailed in any poll there. But he remains at 46 or 47-percent. He will lose to Herschel Walker. In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto polls consistently at 46-percent. She’ll lose to Adam Laxalt.
The two most interesting races to me are in Pennsylvania and Arizona. John Fetterman is obviously diminished by the stroke he suffered early this year. Rolling Stone quickly unpublished a story that his wife would control his vote. Fetterman, while not an incumbent senator, still polls at 47 to 48-percent. I predict that Mahmet Oz will have a lead on election night, and we’ll watch how Philadelphia counts its votes in the days that follow. In Arizona, incumbent Mark Kelly polls at 46 percent. Blake Masters is a flawed candidate, but he will benefit from the momentum that Kari Lake is generating in the governors race there.
My projection: the U.S. Senate will go Republican, 53-47.
The house: the GOP gains 38 to 42 seats. That would be a working majority of no worse than 260 to 175.
Governors: Tony Evers is still below 50 percent (48) in the two most-recent polls. I’d be more confident in predicting a narrow Tim Michels win if it wasn’t for early voting and late vote counting in Milwaukee. I predict GOP governorship pick-ups in Michigan and Kansas.
Chris Conley
Comments