By Anmol Choubey and Anushree Mukherjee
March 1 (Reuters) – The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have intensified uncertainty across global markets, with investors closely watching potential safe-haven flows into bullion. Here is some reaction from investors, traders and analysts:
EDWARD MEIR, ANALYST AT MAREX
“I think you’re going to see a knee jerk spike up in most commodity markets, including gold and oil. This will be a natural response to the outbreak of hostilities, which was rather unexpected in terms of scale and scope.”
“I think we could open up by about $200/ounce on gold, but then drift lower over the course of the day. The markets are rather dispassionate when it comes to military conflicts; the only thing investors are ultimately focused on is whether the oil flows will be interrupted so once the initial spike is over, the initial rally tends to fade.”
HUGO PASCAL, A PRECIOUS METALS TRADER AT INPROVED
“With traditional exchanges closed, tokenised gold is currently trading at a premium, signalling a bullish ‘flight to safety’ ahead of the week’s open. Our digital proxies are showing a strong weekend bid.”
“PAX Gold (PAXG) is currently leading the charge at $5,344/oz (+2.2% since Friday), while Tether Gold (XAUt) has climbed to $5,292/oz (+1.2%).”
However, “that weekend proxy premiums often overstate the initial gap but accurately reflect the direction”.TIM WATERER, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT KCM TRADE
“Gold is likely to be in higher demand than usual when markets open on Monday. Given the risks regarding how long the conflict may last, which other nations could be dragged in, and inflation fears, gold is expected to assume its mantle as the safe haven asset of choice.”
“Stock markets and other risk assets will probably be sold off and investors will be looking for the best place to park their funds, and gold will likely be atop that list.”
FAWAD RAZAQZADA, MARKET ANALYST AT CITY INDEX AND FOREX.COM
“There will be extra haven demand for gold which could see prices rise to around $5,500 again, and possibly a new record high above January’s peak of around $5,600.”
“However, gold’s gains beyond that level could be capped by a potential rebound in the U.S. dollar, especially if crude oil stays sharply higher.”
TAI WONG, AN INDEPENDENT METALS TRADER”I think gold and silver could sell off ‘on the fact’ on the open but any significant sell off will find buyers as the picture in Iran will unlikely be clear for weeks to months.”
“I think a U.S. attack has been priced in but the timing was a bit uncertain. It’s certainly in the oil market. And the fact that crypto is higher might be a harbinger.”
ANZ ANALYST SONI KUMARI
“Tomorrow, the price reaction will be positive initially, though there could be some retracement later in the session depending on how events unfold.”
“Our overall view has not changed, we remain positive on gold … Geopolitics has been very different this year, with tensions more intense, and after this attack there could also be macro implications, especially if oil prices rise sharply.”
JOSHUA ROTBART, FOUNDER AND MANAGING PARTNER AT J. ROTBART & CO
“It is safe to assume that precious metals will experience enhanced volatility with upward movement.”
“As the risk of a war with Iran was somewhat priced in the rally gold price had already, the extent of the movement will depend on the effect the conflict will have on the energy market, and on whether regime change in Iran is within reach.”
OLE HANSEN, HEAD OF COMMODITY STRATEGY AT SAXO BANK
“There is no doubt this is a worrying escalation and one that will drive investors into precious metals and the energy sector. How big the impact will be is anyone’s guess but given last week’s momentum I would not be surprised if gold prints a fresh record high.”
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Alison Williams)
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