Three years removed from a Philly Special Super Bowl victory, Doug Pederson’s Eagles make a second straight appearance at Lambeau Field Sunday. This year’s Philadelphia squad has struggled mightily at 3-7-1 but they are incredibly, just a half game off the NFC East lead with five to play. The Eagles are one of only five teams in 29 games to beat a Matt LaFleur coached Packers team, spoiling what would have been a perfect home record in his debut season with a 34-27 victory a year ago in September. That game wasn’t settled until a tipped Aaron Rodgers pass from the one yard line was intercepted in the end zone by Nigel Bradham with less than 30 seconds to play. It was a hard hitting affair all day, Jamaal Williams left with a concussion on the opening series after a wicked collision and Davante Adams would wind up missing the next month with a turf toe injury suffered in the 4th quarter after he had already pulled down 10 passes for a career high 180 yards. The Packers are 8 point favorites at home and they’re eager to build off the momentum from last Sunday night’s 41-25 romp over the Chicago Bears.
A couple of medical updates from the week. Center Corey Linsley will be out and probably will be sidelined for most of the remaining schedule after suffering a sprained MCL in his knee last week. Eglton Jenkins will start at center with rookie Jon Runyan making his first career start at left guard. Those two have had to adjust to a position change and getting thrust onto the field in each of the past two games. The Packers listed three players as questionable on Friday’s injury report. Krys Barnes, just activated from the Reserve/Covid list is dealing with a calf injury, Tyler Ervin missed a month with a wrist and then rib issues and Za’Darius Smith’s recurring ankle injury kept him off the practice field on Friday. Head Coach Matt LaFleur said Friday he’s “not overly concerned” about Smith, he’s been battling the ankle problem most of the season.
It should be a very colorful contest, at least from the ankles on down. Players from both teams are dressing up their footwear in the annual “My Cause, My Cleats” campaign. It’s a popular idea from the NFL where players decorate their shoes to reflect a charity, cause or program they want to highlight. Many of the cleats are then auctioned off with proceeds directed toward their cause.
Another 500 fans will be in the stands on Sunday, once again, Packer employees and their family members will be allowed in to allow the team to evaluate Covid protocols. The team is still hopeful ticketed fans might be able to return for one or both of the remaining home games (December 19 and 27) and possibly a January playoff game.
Time to match this one up.
When the Packers have the ball.
Two matchups standout. The first is the Packers juggled offensive line against the Eagles front four, the strongest position group on that squad. They’re led by Brandon Graham with 7 sacks, 23 pressures and 13 tackles for loss. Fletcher Cox, the best run plugger and right end Derek Barnett each have 5.5 sacks and Jason Hargrave rounds out the starting four. Philly has piled up 36 sacks on the year but the Green Bay offensive line has kept Rodgers remarkably clean (11 sacks) all season. It will be interesting to see if the Packers wide zone run game will create enough movement to allow Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams cut back lanes that opened up consistently against the Bears last week.
The second matchup is a one on one delight. The Eagles signed former Detroit Lion cornerback Darius Slay to a free agent deal and he hasn’t disappointed. Slay has consistently been a “star” cover man most of the year, lining up where ever the opponent’s best receiver goes. That of course, is Davante Adams. Davante’s greatest strength may be in the first half of his route with the muscle to release from jams and the footwork to create space. Rodgers won’t shy away from targeting Adams.
The rest of the playmakers will have to win their share of matchups too. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran plenty of go routes last week but was not targeted once. He should see a few balls this week. Philly’s defense ranks 8th against the pass, ninth overall and they’re good at getting off the field on third down (36.9%). The Packers did a great job beating the NFL’s best third down defense in the Bears last week.
When the Eagles have the ball.
The biggest question is, how long can they hang on to it? A broken down offensive line has led to Carson Wentz getting sacked a whopping 46 times and the unending pressure is part of the reason he’s thrown 15 interceptions and has a passer rating of 73.4. The Packers say he’s the same quarterback who was on an MVP pace in 2017 before a serious injury that brought Nick Foles on to the field to finish their championship run. It just doesn’t appear he’s been the same since even though he had a decent game at Lambeau last year, delivering three touchdown passes.
Philly’s receiving corps features a number one pick and a pair of undrafted free agents. 4th year veteran Greg Ward Jr. is the leader with 41 receptions but he averages just 7.2 yards a catch. Jalen Reagor is this year’s top draft choice and then there’s the one that got away. Travis Fulgham has 33 grabs and a team high four touchdowns. He was picked up by the Eagles after spending just over a week in Green Bay’s training camp in August. Matt LaFleur said he looked promising on the practice field but unfortunately, never got a chance to show during a cancelled pre-season and so they moved on from him. After a couple of weeks on Philadelphia’s practice squad, Fulgham seized his second chance opportunity.
Most of the Eagle passing game runs through their tight ends and Zach Ertz returns this week after missing a month with an ankle injury. He’ll join the rotation with Dallas Goedert and former Packer Richard Rodgers who both caught TD passes last Monday night in the loss at home to Seattle. Green Bay’s cover linebackers and safeties will be challenged by this group.
The running game hurt Green Bay in 2019 with Jordan Howard piling up 87 yards with two scores and Miles Sanders hitting 72 on just 11 carries. Sanders has the second best per carry average in the league this year at 5.6, behind only Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook who really hurt the Packers at Lambeau.
The run stoppers must force Wentz to keep drives alive through the air and the longer he has to go to convert third downs, the more time the Packer pass rush can break down Philly’s leaky line.
A special teams twist?
With Ervin questionable, he could still be back on punt and kickoff returns but so too, could newly arrived Tavon Austin. While it may take some more time to get the former number one pick of the Rams acclimated to the offensive playbook, he could make a faster impact fielding punts. He’s taken one to the house in each of his first three seasons in the league.
The bottom line.
The Packers put up 28 points in the first half against Indy’s top 10 defense two weeks ago, they piled up 34 offensive points against another very good Chicago unit last Sunday. I can’t see a respectable Eagles defense being able to slow them down either. A Green Bay D feeling they are just hitting stride for the start of the December drive should continue the season long harassment of Wentz.
I like the Pack 28-20.