March 12 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs has pushed back its Bank of England rate-cut outlook for the second time this month, citing inflation risks from higher energy prices, and now expects three 25-basis-point cuts in July and November this year, and one in February 2027.
While a rate cut at the April 30 meeting remains possible if the energy shock eases quickly, Goldman Sachs said policymakers are more likely to wait for clearer data.
The shift reflects the inflationary impact of higher energy prices across Europe, which is likely to keep the Monetary Policy Committee cautious in the near term, according to the brokerage.
Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley have similarly pushed back their Bank of England easing forecasts, now projecting the central bank’s first rate cut in the second quarter, as energy price spikes linked to the Middle East conflict elevate inflation risks.
Goldman Sachs expects the bank rate to ultimately settle at 3% by early 2027, but noted that in an adverse scenario the MPC would deliver only one cut this year, and none if the conditions worsen further.
(Reporting by Rashika Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
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